Updated Elo ratings and projections

Here’s what my Elo ratings system currently thinks of each team:

Here’s Elo’s tips for the next round of finals:

Reminder: Elo doesn’t know about player changes, so it’s oblivious to the injuries that have hit GWS. Elo has the Giants and Eagles rated pretty similarly (see above), but the home-ground advantage makes the Giants solid favourites. Given the injuries, you might think that Elo’s too confident in a Giants win; I’d agree with that.

How is each remaining team’s season likely to end? Here’s the numbers, based on simulating the remainder of the finals 50 000 times. 


Here are the most likely grand final matchups:

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