2018 AFL projections

This page contains projections of the regular season. For finals projections, click here. 

The projections on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season 20 000 times using the team ratings. You can see our tips for upcoming games here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.

Read more:  How our ratings work Tips for upcoming gamesHistory of AFL Elo ratings

Last updated after Round 22, 2018



Projected ladder

Projected 2018 AFL ladder

Finals probabilities over time

How has each team's chance of making the finals changed over time?

Projected wins by team


Show the projected wins for your team:

Projected wins in the 2018 AFL season
Note: Draws count for half a win.

Read more:  How our ratings work Tips for upcoming gamesHistory of AFL Elo ratings

Got any questions? Get in touch via Twitter or email.