2018 finals tips and projections

The projections on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season at least 20 000 times using the team ratings, after the conclusion of each round.

Read more:  How our ratings work Tips for upcoming gamesHistory of AFL Elo ratings

For archived projections from the regular season, click here. 

CURRENT TEAM RATINGS AFTER WEEK 3 OF FINALS

My Elo system thinks the Eagles and Pies are basically evenly matched, but it’s tipping Collingwood to win by a little over two goals, based on their home-ground advantage.

 

Previous week’s ratings and predictions below:

TEAM RATINGS AFTER WEEK 2 OF FINALS

PROJECTIONS FOR EACH TEAM AFTER WEEK 2 oF FINALS

WHO WILL PLAY IN THE GRAND FINAL?

ELO’S TIPS FOR THE NEXT ROUND