2020 AFL ratings and projections

The projections on this page are based on my Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season 20 000 times using the team ratings. You can see my tips for upcoming games here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.

Read more:  How my ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings

Last updated after R4, 2020

View past ratings (in new window)Pre-season 2017Post R1 2017Post R2 2017Post R3 2017Post R4 2017Post R5 2017Post R6 2017Post R7 2017Post R8 2017Post R9 2017Post R10 2017Post R11 2017Post R12 2017Post R13 2017Post R14 2017Post R15 2017Post R16 2017Post R17 2017Post R18 2017Post R19 2017Post R20 2017Post R21 2017Post R22 2017Pre-season 2018Post R1 2018Post R2 2018Post R3 2018Post R4 2018Post R5 2018Post R6 2018Post R7 2018Post R8 2018Post R9 2018Post R10 2018Post R11 2018Post R12 2018Post R13 2018Post R14 2018Post R15 2018Post R16 2018Post R17 2018Post R18 2018Post R19 2018Post R20 2018Post R21 2018Post R22 2018Pre-season 2019Post R1 2019Post R2 2019Post R3 2019Post R4 2019Post R5 2019Post R6 2019Post R7 2019Post R8 2019Post R9 2019Post R10 2019Post R11 2019Post R12 2019Post R13 2019Post R14 2019Post R15 2019Post R16 2019Post R17 2019Post R18 2019Post R19 2019Post R20 2019Post R21 2019Post R22 2019Post R23 2019

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS ARCHIVED BELOW

Projected ladder

Finals probabilities over time

Projected wins by team

Show the projected wins for your team:
Choose a teamAdelaideBrisbaneCarltonCollingwoodEssendonFremantleGold CoastGeelongGWS GiantsHawthornNorth MelbourneMelbournePort AdelaideRichmondSt KildaSydneyWestern BulldogsWest Coast

Note: Draws count for half a win.

Read more:  How my ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings

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