2020 AFL ratings and projections

The projections on this page are based on my Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season 20 000 times using the team ratings. You can see my tips for upcoming games here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.

Read more:  How my ratings work Tips for upcoming gamesHistory of AFL Elo ratings

Last updated before R1, 2020



REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS ARCHIVED BELOW

Projected ladder

Projected 2020 AFL ladder

Finals probabilities over time

How has each team's chance of making the finals changed over time?

Projected wins by team


Show the projected wins for your team:

Projected wins in the 2020 AFL season
Note: Draws count for half a win.

Read more:  How my ratings work Tips for upcoming gamesHistory of AFL Elo ratings

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