Last season was a quiet year for me at The Arc. My wife and I had our first kid, we moved countries, and I started a new job – all of which meant there wasn’t much time for footy stats analysis. At the end of the 2018 season, I told myself I’d either jump right back into it (new player-based model, regular posts, etc.) or stop entirely in 2019. Instead, I’m going with a mushy middle option – continuing to run my Elo model and post updated ratings and predictions on the site, but with no new model and no plans to get back into regular posting any time soon. So, you can find my Elo model’s latest tips here; find team ratings and projections for the rest of the season here. Links to those two pages live in the sidebar/menu of the site, so you can find them easily. Apart from updates to the tips and ratings pages, the
I now have a dedicated page for my finals tips and projections, based on my Elo model. Click here to have a look.
Hello! Posting at The Arc this year has been sparse, just as I foresaw. Sorry about that. I’m not planning to go back to regular posting anytime soon, but I intend to eventually, when time permits. In the meantime, you can always see my Elo model’s team ratings and projections here, and tips for the forthcoming round here. If you’re interested in footy, particularly in what numbers can tell us about the game, you might be interested in the new book Footballistics out now through ABC Books! The book is written by James Coventry along with a bunch of co-authors, including me! I co-wrote the chapter on teams’ cohesion and the chapter on home-ground advantage and the effect of travel on players, as well as chipping in a few bits and pieces to some other chapters. If you like The Arc, I’m very confident you’ll enjoy the book. Thanks, Matt
Have a look at the latest ratings and projections by clicking right here on this text that you’re reading!
Get your piping hot Elo ratings and projections by clicking this link right here.
The latest projections are up! Click through to have a look.
Tips, ratings, and simulations are up now
Last year, I had the great privilege of writing a weekly column for ESPN Australia & NZ, dubbed ‘Footy Forensics’. Unfortunately I won’t be able to do it again this year, as I don’t have nearly as much time available for footy stats. Thanks very much to the team at ESPN, I really appreciated the chance to write for the site. I’ll still post at The Arc, but posts will be sporadic. I’ll have my Elo-based predictions running and will occasionally post on topics that strike my interest. I’ve also started blogging on non-footy topics at mattcowgill.com, so check that out if you’re interested.
How did my simulations of the 2017 AFL men’s season stack up?
The results are in!