Tips for upcoming AFL games

Finals Week 3:

Finals Week 2:

Finals Week 1:

See more in my piece at ESPN.


This page has an archive of my tips for the 2017 home and away season. Thanks for following along.

The tips on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. You can see our projections for the remainder of the season here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.

The Arc's tips for the next AFL round


The tips for future rounds will change as the games approach. For example, the tips for Round 10 will be different after Round 9 has been played than they were before Round 9.

A negative tipped margin means the home team is expected to lose by that amount. A negative actual margin means the home team lost.

You can see the full methodology for our Elo ratings, which are used to determine our tips, here.

Read more: How our ratings work2017 projections | Complete history of AFL Elo ratings