The projections on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season 20 000 times using the team ratings. You can see our tips for upcoming games here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.
Read more: How our ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings
Last updated after Finals Week 1, 2019
REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS ARCHIVED BELOW
Projected ladder
Finals probabilities over time
Projected wins by team
Show the projected wins for your team:
Note: Draws count for half a win.
Read more: How our ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings