Ratings and predictions before the 2019 finals

The Cats and Tigers are roughly even favourites for the flag, according to my Elo model.

The Eagles are strong favourites to win this weekend; the Lions are tipped to win by a goal and a bit, and the other two games are close to being a toss-up.

The most likely Grand Final matchups are Brisbane vs Richmond and Geelong vs Collingwood.

And finally, here’s how my Elo model rates each AFL team after the end of the home-and-away season.

Creator of The Arc