Ratings and predictions before the 2019 finals

The Cats and Tigers are roughly even favourites for the flag, according to my Elo model. The Eagles are strong favourites to win this weekend; the Lions are tipped to win by a goal and a bit, and the other two games are close to being a toss-up. The most likely Grand Final matchups are Brisbane vs Richmond and Geelong vs Collingwood. And finally, here’s how my Elo model rates each AFL team after the end of the home-and-away season.

Ratings, projections and tips for 2019

Last season was a quiet year for me at The Arc. My wife and I had our first kid, we moved countries, and I started a new job – all of which meant there wasn’t much time for footy stats analysis. At the end of the 2018 season, I told myself I’d either jump right back into it (new player-based model, regular posts, etc.) or stop entirely in 2019. Instead, I’m going with a mushy middle option – continuing to run my Elo model and post updated ratings and predictions on the site, but with no new model and no plans to get back into regular posting any time soon. So, you can find my Elo model’s latest tips here; find team ratings and projections for the rest of the season here. Links to those two pages live in the sidebar/menu of the site, so you can find them easily. Apart from updates to the tips and ratings pages, the

read more Ratings, projections and tips for 2019


Hello! Posting at The Arc this year has been sparse, just as I foresaw. Sorry about that. I’m not planning to go back to regular posting anytime soon, but I intend to eventually, when time permits. In the meantime, you can always see my Elo model’s team ratings and projections here, and tips for the forthcoming round here. If you’re interested in footy, particularly in what numbers can tell us about the game, you might be interested in the new book Footballistics out now through ABC Books! The book is written by James Coventry along with a bunch of co-authors, including me! I co-wrote the chapter on teams’ cohesion and the chapter on home-ground advantage and the effect of travel on players, as well as chipping in a few bits and pieces to some other chapters. If you like The Arc, I’m very confident you’ll enjoy the book. Thanks, Matt