Were our pre-season projections any good?

Every week I’m updating my ratings and projections for the 2017 AFL season, including the graphs that project how many wins a team is likely to have after each round and at the end of the season. These are cool as hell, in my opinion. A few people have asked how teams have performed relative to my pre-season projections, so I decided to have a look.

The graphs below show each team’s actual wins to Round 14, the red line, against the pre-season projection, the black line. The blue-green shaded areas are 70% and 90% prediction intervals. All up, the projections look alright, I reckon, particularly given what a close and strange season it’s been.

Creator of The Arc