This post is just a note to say that I’ve archived my ratings and predictions from the 2017 season. You can see them here:
2017 Ratings and Projections
Before Finals Week 3:
Before Finals Week 2: See this post.
Before Finals Week 1: See my projections at ESPN!
Regular season
The projections on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. We then simulate the season 20 000 times using the team ratings. You can see our tips for upcoming games here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.
Read more: How our ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings
Last updated after Round 22
Projected ladder
Projected wins by team
Show the projected wins for your team:
Note: Draws count for half a win.
Read more: How our ratings work | Tips for upcoming games | History of AFL Elo ratings
Tips for individual games
GRAND FINAL:
Richmond 56% likely to win; tipped margin is 6 points.
This is driven by home-ground advantage, which my model assumes is the same as in the regular season (based on teams’ distance travelled and venue experience). If you disregard HGA, the Crows are narrow 3 point favourites.
Finals Week 3:
Finals Week 1:
The tips on this page are based on our Elo ratings system, which is explained here. Teams are rated based on their past results, taking into account the margin of their wins or losses, the quality of their opposition and home-ground advantage. You can see our projections for the remainder of the season here. The projections and tips will update once a week, after the conclusion of each round.
TIPS FOR All ROUNDS
The tips for future rounds will change as the games approach. For example, the tips for Round 10 will be different after Round 9 has been played than they were before Round 9.
A negative tipped margin means the home team is expected to lose by that amount. A negative actual margin means the home team lost.
You can see the full methodology for our Elo ratings, which are used to determine our tips, here.
Read more: How our ratings work | Complete history of AFL Elo ratings
